I don't claim to have divine knowledge so use caution when gambling with my picks. I'll be uploading them into ESPN's College Bowl Mania so I can update you on my inevitable accuracy.
Tostitos BCS National Championship Game, Jan. 10, #1 Auburn (13-0) vs. #2 Oregon (12-0)
Oregon's #1 "blur" offense (49.3 points per game) vs. Auburn's #6 offense (42.7 ppg) led by the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Cam Newton. Both do their damage on the ground with powerful rushing attacks although both teams that have passing games that must be respected, especially that of Newton. In years past you'd hear all of the SEC supporters citing SEC speed as to why Auburn would win this game. For that reason and the fact that Heisman trophy winners have made a habit of losing to runners-up for the award, I'm picking the faster team *Oregon* to win this game.
Prediction: Oregon
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, Jan. 9, #15 Nevada (12-1) vs. Boston College (7-5)
Nevada's potent rushing offense matches up against a Boston College team that struggled to score points all year (ranked 109 out of 120 schools). While the Eagles ranked #1 against the run, I'm taking *Nevada* as I don't think BC can score enough points to stay competitive.
Prediction: Nevada
BBVA Compass Bowl, Jan. 8, Kentucky (6-6) vs. Pittsburgh (7-5)
Pittsburgh struggled in a very weak Big East and their coach was fired at the end of the season as a result. Never pick a team with a lame duck coach to win a game. I'm taking *Kentucky*.
Prediction: Kentucky
AT&T Cotton Bowl, Jan. 7, #11 LSU (10-2) vs. #17 Texas A&M (9-3)
Both of LSU's losses came on the road at BCS bound competition (Auburn and Arkansas). They have the 9th ranked defense and their coach knows how to play close games. A&M's offense has been less prolific but less turnover prone since changing to Tannehill at QB. I like *LSU's* defense to limit the Aggies production in a close fought game.
Prediction: LSU
GODADDY.com Bowl, Jan. 6, Miami (OH) (9-4) vs. Mid Tennessee (6-6)
Despite not having their starting QB or head coach for the bowl game, *Miami (OH)* has too much talent for the Blue Raiders which required a late season surge to go from 3-6 to bowl eligible.
Prediction: Miami (OH)
Allstate Sugar Bowl, Jan. 4, #6 Ohio State (11-1) vs. #8 Arkansas (10-2)
Ohio State plays much better defense than the Razorbacks and had their only loss at a very good Wisconsin team. Both teams have offenses that can score. I'm going to begrudgingly take *Ohio State*.
Prediction: Ohio State
Discover Orange Bowl, Jan. 3, #4 Stanford (11-1) vs. #13 Virginia Tech (11-2)
Stanford lost one game this year at Oregon. Virginia Tech lost to a very good Boise State team and then inexplicably fell to James Madison. *Stanford* ranks 8th in offense, 11th in defense and has one of the most intelligent and gifted players in Andrew Luck.
Prediction: Stanford
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 1, #7 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. Connecticut (8-4)
I hate to pick *Oklahoma* but Connecticut is overmatched and is only in the game by winning the awful Big East.
Prediction: Oklahoma
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Vizio, Jan. 1, #3 TCU (12-0) vs. #5 Wisconsin (11-1)
By the stats this looks like a close matchup. They're tied for 4th in offense at 43.3 ppg. TCU is #1 on defense while 29th. However, I'm taking *Wisconsin* by two scores for a number of reasons.
1. The Badgers have Tackle Gabe Carimi, winner of the Outland trophy for the nation's best interior lineman, and Guard John Moffitt as first team All-Americans. Wisconsin has throughout the season called rushing plays that are simply follow Carimi and Moffitt as they bully defenders out of the way.
2. J.J. Watt, defensive end. He was a TE at Central Michigan until 2009 when he transferred to Wisconsin and converted to Defensive End. He's the 2010 recipient of the Lott Defensive IMPACT award. In 12 games he had 59 tacklers, 7 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, an interception, and a number of blocked field goals and extra points. He will alter this game at some point.
3. Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin QB, is the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award winner as the nation's top senior QB. He rarely makes mistakes and is accurate with his throws. He has a go-to receiver in Lance Kendricks who is likely bound for NFL success and is a matchup nightmare. These two will make TCU pay if they load up to stop Wisconsin's three headed monster of a running game in John Clay, James White, and Montee Ball, all who rushed for over 800 yards and multiple TDs.
4. Andy Dalton will choke, it's his norm for bowl games. In 3 bowl games he has 1 TD pass and 5 INTs against 69 TDs and 25 INTs in all other games. I like Andy Dalton a lot; I just don't like him in bowl games.
Prediction: Wisconsin
Note #1: If TCU takes advantage of their home team status and wears these uniforms then I'll take Wisconsin by 1 point instead of 2 scores.
Note #2: I do like TCU and this pick is not meant to disrespect them. I think they deserve to play for a national championship and would in my proposed playoff system. However, I think they're playing an elite Wisconsin team that is peaking at the right time and would probably be ranked ahead of either Auburn or Oregon if they hadn't played one off game on the road against a very good Michigan State team.
Progressive Gator Bowl, Jan. 1, #21 Mississippi State (8-4) vs. Michigan (7-5)
Mississippi State went 8-4 in the toughest division in all of football (Arkansas, Auburn, Alabama, LSU were their losses). Michigan can't play defense. It cost them game after game this year.
Prediction: Mississippi State
Outback Bowl, Jan. 1, Penn State (7-5) vs. Florida (7-5)
Game with a coach who keeps quitting in Florida's Urban Meyer who is retiring at the age of 46 against a coach who will never quit in Penn State's 83 year old Joe Paterno. It should be noted that if JoePa had retired at age 46 he would have retired in 1972. I'm picking a young *Penn State* team against an underachieving Florida team with a lame duck head coach.
Prediction: Penn State
Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1, #9 Michigan State (11-1) vs. #16 Alabama (9-3)
*Alabama* is a better team than their record indicates. And they are too well coached to not win this game in which they are the more talented team.
Prediction: Alabama
Ticketcity Bowl, Jan. 1, Texas Tech (7-5) vs. Northwestern (7-5)
Northwestern hasn't won a bowl game since 1949. That fate doesn't with their starting QB out injured. *Texas Tech* extends their misery.
Prediction: Texas Tech
Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31, #20 South Carolina (9-4) vs. #23 Florida State (9-4)
Two good defensive teams that lost their respective conference championship games. I'm going to take SEC over ACC and pick *South Carolina*.
Prediction: South Carolina
AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Dec. 31, #25 UCF (10-3) vs. Georgia (6-6)
Georgia lost a stretch of games early to start 1-4 with their #1 talent on the sideline in AJ Green. With him back in the lineup they went 5-2 the rest of the way.
Prediction: Georgia
Hyundai Sun Bowl, Dec. 31, Miami (FL) (7-5) vs. Notre Dame (7-5)
Notre Dame has way too many injuries on offense to hang with an underachieving Miami team. I'm taking *Miami* but neither team is particularly good.
Prediction: Miami
Meineke Car Care Bowl, Dec. 31, Clemson (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5)
South Florida is only bowl eligible by scraping out a number of close wins in a very weak Big East (including 2 OT victories). Even though *Clemson* is 6-6 I've got to take them in this pillowfight.
Prediction: Clemson
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl, Dec. 30, #18 Nebraska (10-3) vs. Washington (6-6)
Rematch of a 56-21 beatdown by *Nebraska* at Washington. Nothing has changed to convince me that Washington is close to keeping this game competitive.
Prediction: Nebraska
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Dec. 30, Tennessee (6-6) vs. North Carolina (7-5)
Irony game - these two were scheduled to play each of the next two years but Tennessee bought out the contract for the games in order to make their schedule easier while they rebuild their program. The football gods took note and are spiting the Volunteers with what will be a loss to *North Carolina*.
Prediction: North Carolina
New Era Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 30, Syracuse (7-5) vs. Kansas State (7-5)
At the New York Yankee stadium, this is a virtual home game for *Syracuse*. Will take the Orange with home-field support.
Prediction: Syracuse
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 30, SMU (7-6) vs. Army (6-6)
SMU's pass-happy offense against Army's triple option rushing game. Despite being the Armed Forces bowl this game is actually hosted at the home field of *SMU*. Much like above, I'm taking the home team.
Prediction: SMU
Valero Alamo Bowl, Dec. 29, #14 Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5)
*Oklahoma State* deserved a far better bowl (I'm looking at you Cotton Bowl) and have to be disappointed to be here. Even with the letdown, they are waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too talented to lose this game.
Prediction: Oklahoma State
Texas Bowl, Dec. 29, Baylor (7-5) vs. Illinois (6-6)
Another near home game for *Baylor* and again I'm picking the home game.
Prediction: Baylor
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman, Dec. 29, Maryland (8-4) vs. East Carolina (6-6)
*Maryland* didn't lose any games to inferior competition all season and there's no reason to predict an upset here.
Prediction: Maryland
Insight Bowl, Dec. 28, #12 Missouri (10-2) vs Iowa (7-5)
*Missouri* finished hot while Iowa finished a disappointing season cold. That will carry over into the bowl game as the Tigers win.
Prediction: Missouri
Champs Sports Bowl, Dec. 28, #22 West Virginia (9-3) vs. NC State (8-4)
Failing to win the weakest BCS conference and having a lame duck head coach (Bill Stewart will coach through the end of his contract and his replacement has already been hired to start in 2012) does not bode well for my projection of you. *NC State* beats an unmotivated West Virginia.
Prediction: NC State
AdvoCaro V100 Independence Bowl, Dec. 27, Georgia Tech (6-6) vs. Air Force (8-4)
The top two rushing attacks in the country who both utilize the triple option will go head to head. There may not be a pass thrown all game. I'm going to show the Mountain West conference some love and pick *Air Force*.
Prediction: Air Force
Little Caesars Bowl, Dec. 26, Toledo (8-4) vs. Florida International (6-6)
Both teams have been largely unsuccessful in seasons past and I admittedly know next to nothing about either. Coin toss says *Florida International*.
Prediction: Florida International
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24, #24 Hawaii (10-3) vs Tulsa (9-3)
Offenses #9 and #10 in the country against two defenseless defenses. Home game for *Hawaii*. I wonder who I'm picking...
Prediction: Hawaii
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, Dec. 23, San Diego State (8-4) vs. Navy (9-3)
San Diego State will load up to stop the triple option rushing of Navy. They also played TCU right to the end at TCU which I have to give them props for. Finally, *San Diego State* is playing their bowl game in San Diego. Hmmmmmmmmmm...
Prediction: San Diego State
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas, Dec. 22, #10 Boise State (11-1) vs. #19 Utah (10-2)
As good as I think Utah is and as big of a letdown as it has to be for *Boise State* to fall to this game, there is no way that I can pick against the Broncos. Boise State's one loss came against an excellent Nevada team at Nevada that they should have won but two missed short field goals possibly cost them the national championship game. They are an elite team and will win this game, big.
Prediction: Boise State
Beef 'o' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg, Dec. 21, Louisville (6-6) vs. Southern Miss (8-4)
With a name like this, I have to pick the beefiest team. In this matchup, that can only lead to me picking *Louisville* and their beefy defense led by new head coach Charlie Strong.
Prediction: Louisville
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 18, Troy (7-5) vs. Ohio (8-4)
Coin toss: *Troy*
Prediction: Troy
uDrove Humanitarian Bowl, Dec. 18, Fresno State (8-4) vs. Northern Illinois (10-3)
Instinct tells me to pick *Fresno State* due to their knack for winning big games. And Northern Illinois doesn't have a head coach due to theirs bolting to coach Minnesota. No coach = no bowl win.
Prediction: Fresno State
New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 18, UTEP (6-6) vs. Brigham Young (6-6)
Charity game for two teams that get to play in a big game because everyone gets a participation medal in school these days. Seriously, these teams are equal part loser and winner and they are rewarded with a cash payout nationally televised postseason game. I'm picking *BYU* with the better finish to the season to win the game, but I'm picking every fan not from these universities as a loser for having postseason matchups like this.
Prediction: BYU
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If you made it to the end of my 2,148 words on bowl projections, congrats and thank you! Comments and criticisms are definitely welcome on any of my picks as I welcome discussion of football.
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