Today I am going to inform you on how to win at fantasy football. My qualifications are as follows: I've played in 11 leagues in my life with typically 1-2 played per NFL season. Looking back through my leagues, I've finished as the top regular season scorer 6 times and the winner of the playoffs 5 times (there is no correlation between the two results as I've been the top regular season scorer and been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in the same season 3 times >.<). This past season I was the top regular season scorer but was eliminated in the semi-finals in a matchup which pitted me against the top single game score of the season.
While I realize each league is different with roster setup, scoring, and drafting, the following bits of wisdom will help you score points no matter what your league structure is:
1. Do not translate personal bias into fantasy bias
Just because you have issues with a particular player does not mean that player won't score you tons of fantasy points. If Brett Favre is the best player available (hint: he's not), then I would begrudgingly play him in fantasy football despite my strong feelings about his me me me attention whoring traitorous ways. This year I drafted Adrian Peterson #1 overall despite him playing his college and professional career for two teams that I hate (Oklahoma in college, Minnesota in the NFL). Even with a number of injuries, he's the #2 running back in our league (through week 16). Desean Jackson is a tool (see examples 1 and 2, there are many many more) but when he was dropped by another team in my league during an injured/low production stretch I scooped him up as a healthy Desean Jackson with a healthy Michael Vick throwing to him puts up a ton of fantasy points.
2. Draft advice
a. Do not draft players who share their position with another stud on the their team
Splitting carries for running backs or targets for wide receivers means a lower potential fantasy value. Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, and Maurice Jones-Drew are all "the guy" at running back for their respective teams and pick up the bulk of the running game points. Likewise Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, and Roddy White are all "the guy" at receiver and as a result had more targets simply by being much better players than the other members of their team. Meanwhile, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw of the New York Giants (both drafted high in most leagues) would both be fantasy studs if they were the feature back of their team. However, the carry split dropped them from stud to decent fantasy option. There are of course exceptions, notably Jamaal Charles (#4 RB) and Thomas Jones of the Kansas City Chiefs, but this is more due to the disproportionate number of running plays called by the Chiefs (no one in the NFL had more called runs).
b. Do not draft players from teams known for resting players late in the season
I learned my lesson many seasons ago. While all teams give their starters some rest once their playoff positioning is locked up, some teams just flat out stop playing their stars. Do not draft Peyton Manning if you want to win in the post-season. If he scores you boatloads of points in the regular season then the Colts will likely have their playoff position locked up before week 17 and he'll ride the bench the rest of the way screwing you over. Meanwhile, the Patriots and Giants have shown a willingness to play their starters through the end of the season (or at least most of the games) and keep the team hot for the postseason. Drafting players from teams like these and teams that will likely still be playing for something through the end of the season will go a long way towards fantasy playoff success.
3. In-season advice
a. Be active with adds/drops
The top four teams in my league in number of add/drops were also the four teams that made the semi-finals. I had the most add/drops with 29 and finished #1 in total points scored. The #2 QB (Michael Vick), #3 RB (Peyton Hillis), #2 WR (Brandon Lloyd), and #4 TE (Marcedes Lewis) were all undrafted in most leagues. It's been well documented that in-season transactions matter much more than the draft as the draft is only based on preseason biases and doesn't reflect matchups and how the player is performing that season.
b. Play the matchup with your defense
Unless you draft a top tier fantasy defense (one that generates turnovers, sacks, and defensive touchdowns), just play the matchup each week for your defense. The top fantasy defenses this year were the Steelers, Patriots, Packers, and Bears. If you didn't have one of these four, your best play was to check the matchups every week and add/drop to the best matchup. The best matchups this year were whichever defense was playing Arizona, Carolina, or a rookie recently signed quarterback (see Houston Texans defense, dead last against the pass, shutting out the Tennessee Titans and their rookie one game QB Rusty Smith).
4. Have fun and talk shit
Fantasy is much more enjoyable when you give each other shit or win beers from betting that you're going to beat your opponent that week. Gary, I'm looking forward to that cold one.
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Exercise Journal
Thursday - Dog Walk: +1
Cumulative Total: +10
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